It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
